240. SECURITY IN THE ASIAN THEATRE (PANEL I)
240.
Panel Title : SECURITY IN THE ASIAN THEATRE (PANEL I)
Chair :
Participants :
Nori Katagiri
Paper Title : How Rebel Gruops Defeat Militarily Stronger States in War: Examples from the
Malayan Experience
Abstract :
Under what conditions do underdogs win in war? In this dissertation I investigate factors that enable non-state actors to fight and defeat militarily superior state actors in war. I survey 78 extra-systemic wars and evaluate the explanatory power of three major theories of asymmetric conflict across these cases. These three theories are: the balance of interest, strategic interactions, and regime type. I then engage in a more in-depth analysis of three conflicts that represent different war outcomes: the Mahdi War (1882-85), an illustration of victory by the weak; the Malayan Emergency (1948-60), an illustration of victory for a draw; and, an undetermined case that reflects victory by the strong. I expect examination of these three cases to enable me to uncover the causal mechanisms of asymmetric victory.My working hypothesis is as follows. I suspect that there is a strong correlation between military power and directness of force used in war, and that the weaker the actor is, the less directly it uses force. The actor uses force
